Integrated Analysis of the Impacts of Global Change on Environment and Society in the Elbe Basin

The River Elbe is a prominent feature of central Europe in both a geographic and socio-economic sense. The German part of the Elbe basin, around 2/3 of the entire river basin, is home to 18 million people. Of these, most live in the territory of the former East Germany, which covers 88% of the German Elbe basin. These areas are currently undergoing socio-economic transformations, which have far-reaching consequences for the economic use of water. Comprehensive de-industrialisation has led to an economic re-evaluation of the water and utility industry. The increasing importance of the water and energy utilities is particularly relevant to the water budget. While the population is decreasing as a result of industrial decline, water management costs per capita are increasing. Water management in the Elbe basin not only must consider the changing socio-economic framework, but also future climate change. The German part of the Elbe basin today is characterised by its low water availability and a high nutrient load in the river system. Climate models indicate that further reduction of water availability due to declining levels of precipitation must be expected. In the GLOWA-Elbe project (funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science) scientists from 19 institutions have used simulation studies to investigate possible impacts of climate change on the water budget of the German Elbe basin, looking at how these changes mean in view of emerging socio-economic developments, and what strategies should be in order to adapt to these changes. The results, compiled under the title "Challenges of global change for the Elbe river basin" include range from the climatic impact on water availability, agricultural yield potential and economic effects resulting from the former, via nutrient inputs to the river system, to the adaptation opportunities arising from the flooding of 12,000 hectares of former lignite pits in the mining region of Lusatia.